Dream vs Mercury Betting Preview: Expert Picks for July 23 WNBA Showdown
Phoenix Mercury host Atlanta Dream tonight at 10 PM ET as 7.5-point favorites. Our expert analysis covers key player props, injury impacts, and strategic betting opportunities for this Western Conference clash.
Current Betting Odds & Lines
Team Analysis & Current Form
Phoenix Mercury (15-7) - Heating Up
The Mercury enter tonight's contest as significant home favorites, and for good reason. Phoenix sits in third place in the WNBA standings with a 15-7 record, showcasing their strength throughout the 2025 season.
Mercury's Big Three Finally Healthy
The key storyline for Phoenix is the return to health of their core trio: Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper. This trio has played just six games together this season due to various injuries, but when healthy, they've been dominant with a +4.9 net rating.
Atlanta Dream (13-10) - Cooling Off
The Dream have struggled recently, losing six of their past nine games and dropping to fifth place in the standings at 13-10. This recent slide has hurt their playoff positioning as they fight to secure a favorable seed.
Tonight's game represents a critical opportunity for Atlanta on the road, but they'll be facing a motivated Mercury team looking to solidify their playoff position.
Key Players to Watch
Assists Prop: Over 9.5 assists (-110) - Thomas has been the engine of Phoenix's offense, averaging 10.8 assists in the six games where the big three played together. She cleared this prop in four of those six contests.
3-Pointers Prop: Over 1.5 made (-115) - Copper returns tonight after missing time with a hamstring injury. She's shooting an impressive 44.8% from three-point range this season, her highest mark since her rookie year.
Rebounds Prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-105) - Sabally has been a consistent contributor on the boards and should see increased opportunities with Phoenix's uptempo style.
Rebounds Prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (+110) - With Rhyne Howard out due to knee injury, Gray has significantly increased her rebounding. She's averaged 8.5 rebounds in games without Howard compared to 5.1 when he plays.
Injury Report & Impact
Atlanta Dream
Rhyne Howard (OUT) - Knee injury. Howard's absence continues to impact Atlanta's offensive flow and puts additional pressure on other players to step up, particularly in the rebounding department.
Phoenix Mercury
Monique Akoa Makani (OUT) - Concussion protocol. The young guard's absence creates opportunity for other bench players to contribute.
Expert Betting Analysis
Why Mercury -7.5 Makes Sense
The spread reflects Phoenix's home court advantage and their recent strong play. With their core trio finally healthy and playing together, the Mercury have shown they can be dominant on both ends of the floor. Their offensive rating of 103.4 with defensive rating of 98.5 creates a strong foundation for covering larger spreads.
Total Points Considerations
The 168.5 total appears reasonable given both teams' recent scoring patterns. Phoenix's uptempo style with their big three healthy could push this over, especially if Atlanta struggles on the second night of a back-to-back situation.
Player Props Value
The Alyssa Thomas assists prop at 9.5 offers strong value given her recent performance with the full lineup healthy. Meanwhile, Allisha Gray's rebounding prop benefits from increased usage with Howard sidelined.
BetHer's Recommended Plays
Primary Recommendation
Mercury -7.5 (-110) - The home team with their core healthy should handle a struggling Dream team playing on the road.
Player Props to Consider:
- Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 assists (-110)
- Allisha Gray Over 6.5 rebounds (+110)
- Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 three-pointers (-115)
Remember to use our parlay calculator if you're considering combining multiple bets from tonight's game.
Responsible Gambling Reminder: Always bet within your means and never wager more than you can afford to lose. Sports betting should be fun and educational. If you need help with gambling-related issues, call 1-800-522-4700.