📋 How to Use This Page
🎯 Confidence Levels
Each game is rated HIGH, MEDIUM, or LOW confidence based on our model's certainty. Focus on higher confidence picks for better results.
💰 Expected Value (EV)
Green EV percentages show mathematically profitable bets. Positive EV means our model gives you an edge over the sportsbook.
📊 Team Stats
Click any team name to see detailed season statistics, recent form, and advanced metrics in a popup window.
🏷️ Signal Tags
Colored tags show our strongest recommendations: HOME FAV, AWAY FAV, OVER 8.5, F5 OVER, and +EV opportunities.
💰 Expected Value (EV) Betting Today
Expected Value betting is a mathematical approach that identifies bets where the odds offer better payouts than the true probability suggests. A positive EV bet means you have a long-term advantage over the sportsbook.
🎯 How EV Works:
Positive EV (+2% or higher): Our model believes the true probability is higher than what the odds suggest. These are mathematically profitable bets over time.
Negative EV: The sportsbook has the advantage on this bet. Avoid these.
Example: If our model gives a team a 60% chance to win, but the odds imply only 55% chance, that's a +EV opportunity.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Away ML
36.6% EV
POSITIVE EV
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Away ML
32.0% EV
POSITIVE EV
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Home ML
30.9% EV
POSITIVE EV
San Diego Padres @ Chicago White Sox
Home ML
22.6% EV
POSITIVE EV
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Home ML
18.0% EV
POSITIVE EV
🤖 XGBoost Model with Expected Value Analysis
Advanced machine learning algorithm analyzing 50+ factors plus real-time DraftKings odds to identify profitable betting opportunities
Atlanta Braves
Joey Wentz
38.2%
Detroit Tigers
Keider Montero
61.8%
Home ML: 13.3%Away ML: -24.0%
HOME FAVOVER 8.5F5 OVER+EV: Home ML
Miami Marlins
Adam Mazur
38.2%
Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter
61.8%
Home ML: -0.3%Away ML: -11.0%Over 8.5: -6.1%Under 8.5: -2.9%
HOME FAVF5 OVER
Seattle Mariners
George Kirby
38.2%
Houston Astros
Framber Valdez
61.8%
Home ML: 18.0%Away ML: -27.1%
HOME FAVF5 OVER+EV: Home ML
Cleveland Guardians
Slade Cecconi
38.2%
Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan
61.8%
Home ML: 13.7%Away ML: -24.3%
HOME FAV+EV: Home ML
Cleveland Guardians
Logan Allen
38.2%
Minnesota Twins
Bailey Ober
61.8%
HOME FAVF5 OVER
Boston Red Sox
Kyle Harrison
43.1%
Tampa Bay Rays
Adrian Houser
56.9%
Home ML: 7.7%Away ML: -17.0%
F5 OVER+EV: Home ML
Washington Nationals
Cade Cavalli
43.1%
New York Mets
Nolan McLean
56.9%
Home ML: -22.3%Away ML: 36.6%Over 8.5: -5.2%Under 8.5: -4.2%
F5 OVER+EV: Away ML
San Francisco Giants
Kai-Wei Teng
45.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tyler Glasnow
54.8%
Home ML: -22.3%Away ML: 32.0%Over 8.5: -2.3%Under 8.5: -7.1%
F5 OVER+EV: Away ML
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola
45.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen
54.8%
Home ML: 1.2%Away ML: -10.9%
F5 OVER
Milwaukee Brewers
Chad Patrick
47.7%
St. Louis Cardinals
Miles Mikolas
52.3%
Home ML: 14.0%Away ML: -18.9%
F5 OVER+EV: Home ML
San Diego Padres
Yu Darvish
48.9%
Chicago White Sox
Yoendrys Gómez
51.1%
Home ML: 22.6%Away ML: -22.7%Over 8.5: 1.8%Under 8.5: -11.0%
F5 OVER+EV: Home ML
Toronto Blue Jays
Shane Bieber
49.0%
Kansas City Royals
Noah Cameron
51.0%
Home ML: 11.7%Away ML: -17.0%
F5 OVER+EV: Home ML
Chicago Cubs
Javier Assad
49.4%
Cincinnati Reds
Zack Littell
50.6%
Home ML: -5.8%Away ML: -3.1%
F5 OVER
Los Angeles Angels
Kyle Hendricks
50.1%
Colorado Rockies
Germán Márquez
49.9%
Home ML: 1.8%Away ML: -10.1%
OVER 8.5F5 OVER
New York Yankees
Carlos Rodón
50.6%
Baltimore Orioles
Tomoyuki Sugano
49.4%
Home ML: 30.9%Away ML: -24.6%
F5 OVER+EV: Home ML