Why NFL Betting is Perfect for Beginners
The NFL offers the most betting opportunities of any sport, with games primarily on Sundays giving you time to research. The league's popularity means extensive coverage and statistics are available, making it easier to make informed decisions.
NFL Season Structure
18 weeks of regular season (September-January) + playoffs. Each team plays 17 games, giving you plenty of opportunities to learn and apply strategies throughout the season.
Understanding NFL Point Spreads
Point spreads are the most popular NFL bet type. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread or win outright.
NFL Spread Example
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos +7.5 (-110)
Chiefs must win by 8+ points to cover. Broncos cover if they lose by 7 or fewer, or win the game.
Key Spread Numbers in NFL
Certain numbers are more common in NFL final scores:
| Key Number | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| 3 | Field goal (most common margin) |
| 7 | Touchdown + extra point |
| 10 | Touchdown + field goal |
| 14 | Two touchdowns |
NFL Totals (Over/Under)
Betting on whether the combined score will be over or under the sportsbook's number. This bet type is great for beginners because you're not picking sides.
Factors That Affect Totals
Weather: Wind, rain, and snow typically lower scoring
Pace of Play: Fast teams run more plays, creating more scoring opportunities
Defensive Strength: Check rankings for points allowed per game
Injuries: Key offensive players missing can significantly impact scoring
Total Example
Bills vs Dolphins - Total 47.5
Over 47.5: Combined score 48 or higher
Under 47.5: Combined score 47 or lower
Popular NFL Player Props
Player props let you bet on individual performances rather than game outcomes. These can be easier to predict than full game results.
Passing Yards
Will a QB throw for over/under a set number of yards? Consider matchup and weather.
Rushing Yards
Running back yardage totals. Check opponent's run defense ranking and injury reports.
Receiving Yards
Wide receiver/tight end totals. Look at target share and matchup data.
Touchdown Scorers
Anytime or first touchdown scorer bets. Red zone usage is key data point.
NFL Research Strategy
Successful NFL betting requires consistent research. Here's what to focus on:
Weekly Preparation
Tuesday-Wednesday: Review injury reports and news
Thursday-Friday: Check weather forecasts for outdoor games
Saturday-Sunday: Look for line movements and public betting trends
Key Statistics to Track
• Points scored/allowed per game
• Yards per play (offense and defense)
• Turnover differential
• Red zone efficiency
• Third down conversion rates
Situational Factors
Divisional Games: Often closer than expected, familiarity breeds parity
Prime Time: Teams sometimes perform differently under lights
Travel: West Coast teams traveling east for early games can struggle
Bye Weeks: Teams coming off bye weeks are typically well-prepared
NFL Betting Calendar
Understanding the NFL season helps you plan your betting approach:
Preseason (August)
Avoid betting on preseason games - they're unpredictable with mixed rosters and varying effort levels.
Early Season (Weeks 1-4)
Small sample sizes make teams hard to evaluate. Focus on fundamental matchups and coaching advantages.
Mid-Season (Weeks 5-12)
Best time for data-driven betting. You have enough stats to make informed decisions.
Late Season (Weeks 13-18)
Playoff implications matter. Some teams may rest players in Week 18 if playoff position is set.
Playoffs
Higher stakes mean more motivated play, but also increased public betting that can move lines.
Managing Your NFL Bankroll
The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. Proper bankroll management is crucial for long-term success.
Weekly Betting Strategy
With 16-17 games most Sundays, it's tempting to bet every game. Instead, focus on 2-3 games you've researched thoroughly. Quality over quantity always wins.
Consider the long season when setting bet sizes. A 5% rule (5% of bankroll per bet) gives you staying power through inevitable losing streaks.